Nice mayoral race tightens as new poll narrows first-round gap
A fresh opinion poll suggests the 2026 municipal contest in Nice is closer than previously thought, with Éric Ciotti leading but facing strong competition from Christian Estrosi.
A fresh opinion poll has tightened the race in the run-up to the 2026 municipal elections in Nice, suggesting a far closer contest between Éric Ciotti and Christian Estrosi than previously indicated.
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The survey, conducted by Ifop on behalf of the association Les Amis du maire, shows Ciotti on 38% of first-round voting intentions, ahead of Estrosi on 32%. Juliette Chesnel-Le Roux is credited with 12%, while Mireille Damiano stands at 11%.
Carried out by telephone between 16 and 20 February among a representative sample of 608 registered voters in Nice, the poll also points to a highly competitive second round.
In the event of a four-way run-off, Ciotti would secure 40% of the vote, compared with 36% for Estrosi, 14% for Chesnel-Le Roux and 10% for Damiano. In a three-way contest, Ciotti is projected to win 43%, ahead of Estrosi on 37% and Chesnel-Le Roux on 20%. In a head-to-head duel, however, the two men are level at 50% each.
The findings contrast with a survey published a day earlier by OpinionWay, which placed Ciotti well ahead on 45% in the first round, compared with 27% for Estrosi. That poll was commissioned by the Hexagone Observatory, a body financed by businessman Pierre-Édouard Stérin.
A separate study by Elabe for BFMTV, Nice-Matin and Le Figaro, published on 27 February, had also put Ciotti in the lead on 41%, but predicted an extremely tight second round in the event of a direct contest.
With just two weeks to go before the first round on 15 March, three polls in as many days have underlined both the volatility of the race and the uncertainty over who will ultimately take control of the city hall, held by Estrosi since 2008.